Archive for March, 2008
A Primary Assessment
It is March, and while Senator John McCain is busy consolidating the republican party base as the presumptive nominee, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama continue their battle royale for the top Democratic spot. Despite Camp Hillary’s assertions to the contrary, all signs and confounding mathematical formulations point toward an eventual Obama coronation in Denver later this summer.
Discounting the ongoing recount movements in Michigan and Florida, which could throw those states’ delegates back into the mix and Hillary back in the overall lead, the Senator from Illinois has momentum (two straight wins in Wyoming and Mississippi) and a clear delegate lead as we head into Pennsylvania in less than a week.
The past is often a good predictor of the future, and recent (very) historical indicators point to an eventual Obama-McCain title fight, with early odds giving Obama the slightest of edges. Let’s look at a couple of these indicators, one pertaining to the Democratic narrative, and the other to the general election, that let us make such a bold prediction:
Trend One: Obama continues to rake in the cash – lots of it
Sure, Hillary had a strong February, with a $35million fundraising haul. But Obama took it to another level, raising a record $55million during those same 29 days. $45million of that total originated online, including 90 percent coming by way of incremental, individual donations of $100 or less. We think this Internet thing may catch on, after all.